International investors accounted for 40 percent of the total transaction volume in 2015. That is NOK 47 billion of the total NOK 120-130 billion. DNB Markets believes that the international investors share of the Norwegian volume in 2016 will decrease significantly.
“We believe that it will fall to about 20 percent. They will be present, but this mainly because of the currency that gives them discounts in Norway” says Mortensen.
DNB Markets do not work with estimates of transaction volumes, so how much 20 percent means they cannot say, but some realtor firms have estimated that the current volume this year will decrease significantly. Some have estimated between NOK 60 to 70 billion. 20 percent of that is between NOK 12 and 14 billion. The decrease from 48 billion is therefore considerable.
“Norway is no longer a secure harbor. The increased insecurity is connected to the Norwegian private sector. The Norwegian state is of course a safe tenant, but they obviously cannot rent everything” says Mortensen.
DNB Markets believe that an even more restrictive bank market is what will affect the market.
“The majority of banks have already signaled that they want to increase the prices of cooperate loans and commercial real estate is a considerable part of this” says Mortensen.
He also points out that the insecurity in Norwegian business has worsened, just like the insecurities on the rental market.
“Provisionally this has not had an effect on the transaction market, but we believe that 2016 is the year that it happens. The fear of increased unemployment in the real estate market will affect the transaction market” says Mortensen.
Some reports envisage financial growth in 2017, but DNB Markets view those as too positive.
“We think we will see lower revisions of GDP as well in 2017, and thus we see a shift of the expected financial growth. This will affect the rental market that we believe will be challenging in 2017 as well” says Mortensen.