The American economy is in a good place, unemployment is low and interest rates are coming down. Neither of Harris or Trump would have wanted to disturb this, says Global Chief Economist Richard Barkham to Nordic Property News. He goes on to say that history shows that there is a great deal of continuity in U.S. foreign policy, but within that Trump will prioritize the maintenance of U.S, influence in the Asia Pacific Region in the face of China’s growing military strength.

 What advantages and disadvantages do you see with Trumps upcoming presidency?

"The advantages of Trump will be a pro-business and enterprise agenda, with lower taxes and lower regulation. There will also be a focus on eliminating ‘unfair’ competition for America businesses in the global trading system and ensuring that migration to America takes place through legal channels." 

"The disadvantages of a Trump Presidency might include a higher budget deficit due to tax cuts, but no reduction in spending, higher inflation because of the impact of tariffs and possibly labor shortages."

He goes on to say that geopolitically, there will be a greater trend to isolationism under President Trump, which might mean a peace deal in Ukraine which involves ceding of land. 

"More generally, the U.S. will require European Governments to raise their defiance spending, but that is already happening."

Richard Barkham goes on to say that in comparison Harris as President would have meant a reduction in the budget deficit as previously enacted tax cuts with a subset clause are allowed to lapse and greater social spending to support childcare and families. In that case additional childcare could have boosted the labor supply through great female participation.

"The disadvantages of a Harris Presidency would have included, potentially, higher taxes on business and entrepreneurs, and greater regulation of the economy. A Harris Presidency would likely have continued the foreign policies of the Biden administration, including military support for Ukraine."

What effect do you think the election results will have on the commercial real estate market globally? 

"Well, the current position of reasonable growth and falling inflation is very good for real estate. Fundamentals are firming and investor demand is picking up as interest rates fall. This is likely to continue. Neither candidate has talked about reducing the US budget deficit, so that means upward pressure on the yield on the ten-year treasury, meaning real estate yield will remain elevated."

He says that most economists think that initially Trump’s policies are slightly more inflationary than those of Harris, even if they lead to better growth in the longer term. 

"This also suggests interest rates higher for longer, which would constrain investor demand for real estate until there was further price adjustment. It is possible that Trump will require Federal staff to return to the office, which would boost the office sector in certain location."

How might those effects differ between the US and Europe?

"Europe is making good progress with inflation, and so is likely to see interest rates fall more quickly. This suggests that real estate investment will pick up more quickly in Europe than the US. Greater defense spending will favor the manufacturing sector in Europe particularly the UK, Sweden and France."